Genetic drift and purifying selection shape within-host influenza A virus populations during natural swine infections.

Patterns of within-host influenza A virus (IAV) diversity and evolution have been described in natural human infections, but these patterns remain poorly characterized in non-human hosts. Elucidating these dynamics is important to better understand IAV biology and the evolutionary processes that govern spillover into humans. Here, we sampled an IAV outbreak in pigs during a week-long county fair to characterize viral diversity and evolution in this important reservoir host. Nasal wipes were collected on a daily basis from all pigs present at the fair, yielding up to 421 samples per day. Subtyping of PCR-positive samples revealed the co-circulation of H1N1 and H3N2 subtype swine IAVs. PCR-positive samples with robust Ct values were deep-sequenced, yielding 506 sequenced samples from a total of 253 pigs. Based on higher-depth re-sequenced data from a subset of these initially sequenced samples (260 samples from 168 pigs), we characterized patterns of within-host IAV genetic diversity and evolution. We find that IAV genetic diversity in single-subtype infected pigs is low, with the majority of intrahost Single Nucleotide Variants (iSNVs) present at frequencies of <10%. The ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to the number of synonymous iSNVs is significantly lower than under the neutral expectation, indicating that purifying selection shapes patterns of within-host viral diversity in swine. The dynamic turnover of iSNVs and their pronounced frequency changes further indicate that genetic drift also plays an important role in shaping IAV populations within pigs. Taken together, our results highlight similarities in patterns of IAV genetic diversity and evolution between humans and swine, including the role of stochastic processes in shaping within-host IAV dynamics.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics and tissue compartmentalization during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The global evolution of SARS-CoV-2 depends in part upon the evolutionary dynamics within individual hosts with varying immune histories. To characterize the within-host evolution of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, we sequenced saliva and nasal samples collected daily from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals early during infection. We show that longitudinal sampling facilitates high-confidence genetic variant detection and reveals evolutionary dynamics missed by less-frequent sampling strategies. Within-host dynamics in both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals appeared largely stochastic; however, in rare cases, minor genetic variants emerged to frequencies sufficient for forward transmission. Finally, we detected significant genetic compartmentalization of viral variants between saliva and nasal swab sample sites in many individuals. Altogether, these data provide a high-resolution profile of within-host SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics.IMPORTANCEWe detail the within-host evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection in 31 individuals using daily longitudinal sampling. We characterized patterns of mutational accumulation for unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals, and observed that temporal variant dynamics in both groups were largely stochastic. Comparison of paired nasal and saliva samples also revealed significant genetic compartmentalization between tissue environments in multiple individuals. Our results demonstrate how selection, genetic drift, and spatial compartmentalization all play important roles in shaping the within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 populations during acute infection.

Prevention of respiratory virus transmission by resident memory CD8+ T cells.

An ideal vaccine both attenuates virus growth and disease in infected individuals and reduces the spread of infections in the population, thereby generating herd immunity. Although this strategy has proved successful by generating humoral immunity to measles, yellow fever and polio, many respiratory viruses evolve to evade pre-existing antibodies1. One approach for improving the breadth of antiviral immunity against escape variants is through the generation of memory T cells in the respiratory tract, which are positioned to respond rapidly to respiratory virus infections2-6. However, it is unknown whether memory T cells alone can effectively surveil the respiratory tract to the extent that they eliminate or greatly reduce viral transmission following exposure of an individual to infection. Here we use a mouse model of natural parainfluenza virus transmission to quantify the extent to which memory CD8+ T cells resident in the respiratory tract can provide herd immunity by reducing both the susceptibility of acquiring infection and the extent of transmission, even in the absence of virus-specific antibodies. We demonstrate that protection by resident memory CD8+ T cells requires the antiviral cytokine interferon-γ (IFNγ) and leads to altered transcriptional programming of epithelial cells within the respiratory tract. These results suggest that tissue-resident CD8+ T cells in the respiratory tract can have important roles in protecting the host against viral disease and limiting viral spread throughout the population.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from De Novo Viral Genetic Variation.

Sequencing of viral infections has become increasingly common over the last decade. Deep sequencing data in particular have proven useful in characterizing the roles that genetic drift and natural selection play in shaping within-host viral populations. They have also been used to estimate transmission bottleneck sizes from identified donor-recipient pairs. These bottleneck sizes quantify the number of viral particles that establish genetic lineages in the recipient host and are important to estimate due to their impact on viral evolution. Current approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes exclusively consider the subset of viral sites that are observed as polymorphic in the donor individual. However, these approaches have the potential to substantially underestimate true transmission bottleneck sizes. Here, we present a new statistical approach for instead estimating bottleneck sizes using patterns of viral genetic variation that arise de novo within a recipient individual. Specifically, our approach makes use of the number of clonal viral variants observed in a transmission pair, defined as the number of viral sites that are monomorphic in both the donor and the recipient but carry different alleles. We first test our approach on a simulated dataset and then apply it to both influenza A virus sequence data and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from identified transmission pairs. Our results confirm the existence of extremely tight transmission bottlenecks for these 2 respiratory viruses.

Genetic drift and purifying selection shape within-host influenza A virus populations during natural swine infections.

Patterns of within-host influenza A virus (IAV) diversity and evolution have been described in natural human infections, but these patterns remain poorly characterized in non-human hosts. Elucidating these dynamics is important to better understand IAV biology and the evolutionary processes that govern spillover into humans. Here, we sampled an IAV outbreak in pigs during a week-long county fair to characterize viral diversity and evolution in this important reservoir host. Nasal wipes were collected on a daily basis from all pigs present at the fair, yielding up to 421 samples per day. Subtyping of PCR-positive samples revealed the co-circulation of H1N1 and H3N2 subtype IAVs. PCR-positive samples with robust Ct values were deep-sequenced, yielding 506 sequenced samples from a total of 253 pigs. Based on higher-depth re-sequenced data from a subset of these initially sequenced samples (260 samples from 168 pigs), we characterized patterns of within-host IAV genetic diversity and evolution. We find that IAV genetic diversity in single-subtype infected pigs is low, with the majority of intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) present at frequencies of <10%. The ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to the number of synonymous iSNVs is significantly lower than under the neutral expectation, indicating that purifying selection shapes patterns of within-host viral diversity in swine. The dynamic turnover of iSNVs and their pronounced frequency changes further indicate that genetic drift also plays an important role in shaping IAV populations within pigs. Taken together, our results highlight similarities in patterns of IAV genetic diversity and evolution between humans and swine, including the role of stochastic processes in shaping within-host IAV dynamics.

Semi-infectious particles contribute substantially to influenza virus within-host dynamics when infection is dominated by spatial structure.

Influenza is an ribonucleic acid virus with a genome that comprises eight segments. Experiments show that the vast majority of virions fail to express one or more gene segments and thus cannot cause a productive infection on their own. These particles, called semi-infectious particles (SIPs), can induce virion production through complementation when multiple SIPs are present in an infected cell. Previous within-host influenza models did not explicitly consider SIPs and largely ignore the potential effects of coinfection during virus infection. Here, we constructed and analyzed two distinct models explicitly keeping track of SIPs and coinfection: one without spatial structure and the other implicitly considering spatial structure. While the model without spatial structure fails to reproduce key aspects of within-host influenza virus dynamics, we found that the model implicitly considering the spatial structure of the infection process makes predictions that are consistent with biological observations, highlighting the crucial role that spatial structure plays during an influenza infection. This model predicts two phases of viral growth prior to the viral peak: a first phase driven by fully infectious particles at the initiation of infection followed by a second phase largely driven by coinfections of fully infectious particles and SIPs. Fitting this model to two sets of data, we show that SIPs can contribute substantially to viral load during infection. Overall, the model provides a new interpretation of the in vivo exponential viral growth observed in experiments and a mechanistic explanation for why the production of large numbers of SIPs does not strongly impede viral growth. Being simple and predictive, our model framework serves as a useful tool to understand coinfection dynamics in spatially structured acute viral infections.

Transmission bottleneck size estimation from de novo viral genetic variation.

Sequencing of viral infections has become increasingly common over the last decade. Deep sequencing data in particular have proven useful in characterizing the roles that genetic drift and natural selection play in shaping within-host viral populations. They have also been used to estimate transmission bottleneck sizes from identified donor-recipient pairs. These bottleneck sizes quantify the number of viral particles that establish genetic lineages in the recipient host and are important to estimate due to their impact on viral evolution. Current approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes exclusively consider the subset of viral sites that are observed as polymorphic in the donor individual. However, allele frequencies can change dramatically over the course of an individual's infection, such that sites that are polymorphic in the donor at the time of transmission may not be polymorphic in the donor at the time of sampling and allele frequencies at donor-polymorphic sites may change dramatically over the course of a recipient's infection. Because of this, transmission bottleneck sizes estimated using allele frequencies observed at a donor's polymorphic sites may be considerable underestimates of true bottleneck sizes. Here, we present a new statistical approach for instead estimating bottleneck sizes using patterns of viral genetic variation that arose de novo within a recipient individual. Specifically, our approach makes use of the number of clonal viral variants observed in a transmission pair, defined as the number of viral sites that are monomorphic in both the donor and the recipient but carry different alleles. We first test our approach on a simulated dataset and then apply it to both influenza A virus sequence data and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from identified transmission pairs. Our results confirm the existence of extremely tight transmission bottlenecks for these two respiratory viruses, using an approach that does not tend to underestimate transmission bottleneck sizes.

Effect of Norovirus Inoculum Dose on Virus Kinetics, Shedding, and Symptoms.

The effect of norovirus dose on outcomes such as virus shedding and symptoms after initial infection is not well understood. We performed a secondary analysis of a human challenge study by using Bayesian mixed-effects models. As the dose increased from 4.8 to 4,800 reverse transcription PCR units, the total amount of shed virus in feces increased from 4.5 × 1011 to 3.4 × 1012 genomic equivalent copies; in vomit, virus increased from 6.4 × 105 to 3.0 × 107 genomic equivalent copies. Onset time of viral shedding in feces decreased from 1.4 to 0.8 days, and time of peak viral shedding decreased from 2.3 to 1.5 days. Time to symptom onset decreased from 1.5 to 0.8 days. One type of symptom score increased. An increase in norovirus dose was associated with more rapid shedding and symptom onset and possibly increased severity. However, the effect on virus load and shedding was inconclusive.

Epidemiological inference for emerging viruses using segregating sites.

Epidemiological models are commonly fit to case and pathogen sequence data to estimate parameters and to infer unobserved disease dynamics. Here, we present an inference approach based on sequence data that is well suited for model fitting early on during the expansion of a viral lineage. Our approach relies on a trajectory of segregating sites to infer epidemiological parameters within a Sequential Monte Carlo framework. Using simulated data, we first show that our approach accurately recovers key epidemiological quantities under a single-introduction scenario. We then apply our approach to SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from France, estimating a basic reproduction number of approximately 2.3-2.7 under an epidemiological model that allows for multiple introductions. Our approach presented here indicates that inference approaches that rely on simple population genetic summary statistics can be informative of epidemiological parameters and can be used for reconstructing infectious disease dynamics during the early expansion of a viral lineage.

Avian H7N9 influenza viruses are evolutionarily constrained by stochastic processes during replication and transmission in mammals.

H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused over 1,500 documented human infections since emerging in 2013. Although wild-type H7N9 AIVs can be transmitted by respiratory droplets in ferrets, they have not yet caused widespread outbreaks in humans. Previous studies have revealed molecular determinants of H7N9 AIV host switching, but little is known about potential evolutionary constraints on this process. Here, we compare patterns of sequence evolution for H7N9 AIV and mammalian H1N1 viruses during replication and transmission in ferrets. We show that three main factors-purifying selection, stochasticity, and very narrow transmission bottlenecks-combine to severely constrain the ability of H7N9 AIV to effectively adapt to mammalian hosts in isolated, acute spillover events. We find rare evidence of natural selection favoring new, potentially mammal-adapting mutations within ferrets but no evidence of natural selection acting during transmission. We conclude that human-adapted H7N9 viruses are unlikely to emerge during typical spillover infections. Our findings are instead consistent with a model in which the emergence of a human-transmissible virus would be a rare and unpredictable, though highly consequential, 'jackpot' event. Strategies to control the total number of spillover infections will limit opportunities for the virus to win this evolutionary lottery.

Influenza A virus reassortment in mammals gives rise to genetically distinct within-host subpopulations.

Influenza A virus (IAV) genetic exchange through reassortment has the potential to accelerate viral evolution and has played a critical role in the generation of multiple pandemic strains. For reassortment to occur, distinct viruses must co-infect the same cell. The spatio-temporal dynamics of viral dissemination within an infected host therefore define opportunity for reassortment. Here, we used wild type and synonymously barcoded variant viruses of a pandemic H1N1 strain to examine the within-host viral dynamics that govern reassortment in guinea pigs, ferrets and swine. The first two species are well-established models of human influenza, while swine are a natural host and a frequent conduit for cross-species transmission and reassortment. Our results show reassortment to be pervasive in all three hosts but less frequent in swine than in ferrets and guinea pigs. In ferrets, tissue-specific differences in the opportunity for reassortment are also evident, with more reassortants detected in the nasal tract than the lower respiratory tract. While temporal trends in viral diversity are limited, spatial patterns are clear, with heterogeneity in the viral genotypes detected at distinct anatomical sites revealing extensive compartmentalization of reassortment and replication. Our data indicate that the dynamics of viral replication in mammals allow diversification through reassortment but that the spatial compartmentalization of variants likely shapes their evolution and onward transmission.

Heterogeneity in viral populations increases the rate of deleterious mutation accumulation.

RNA viruses have high mutation rates, with the majority of mutations being deleterious. We examine patterns of deleterious mutation accumulation over multiple rounds of viral replication, with a focus on how cellular coinfection and heterogeneity in viral output affect these patterns. Specifically, using agent-based intercellular simulations we find, in agreement with previous studies, that coinfection of cells by viruses relaxes the strength of purifying selection and thereby increases the rate of deleterious mutation accumulation. We further find that cellular heterogeneity in viral output exacerbates the rate of deleterious mutation accumulation, regardless of whether this heterogeneity in viral output is stochastic or is due to variation in the cellular multiplicity of infection. These results highlight the need to consider the unique life histories of viruses and their population structure to better understand observed patterns of viral evolution.

Influenza A virus undergoes compartmentalized replication in vivo dominated by stochastic bottlenecks.

Transmission of influenza A viruses (IAV) between hosts is subject to numerous physical and biological barriers that impose genetic bottlenecks, constraining viral diversity and adaptation. The bottlenecks within hosts and their potential impacts on evolutionary pathways taken during infection are poorly understood. To address this, we created highly diverse IAV libraries bearing molecular barcodes on two gene segments, enabling high-resolution tracking and quantification of unique virus lineages within hosts. Here we show that IAV infection in lungs is characterized by multiple within-host bottlenecks that result in "islands" of infection in lung lobes, each with genetically distinct populations. We perform site-specific inoculation of barcoded IAV in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets and track viral diversity as infection spreads to the trachea and lungs. We detect extensive compartmentalization of discrete populations within lung lobes. Bottleneck events and localized replication stochastically sample individual viruses from the upper respiratory tract or the trachea that become the dominant genotype in a particular lobe. These populations are shaped strongly by founder effects, with limited evidence for positive selection. The segregated sites of replication highlight the jackpot-style events that contribute to within-host influenza virus evolution and may account for low rates of intrahost adaptation.

Unrecognized introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the US state of Georgia shaped the early epidemic.

In early 2020, as diagnostic and surveillance responses for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ramped up, attention focused primarily on returning international travelers. Here, we build on existing studies characterizing early patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread within the USA by analyzing detailed clinical, molecular, and viral genomic data from the state of Georgia through March 2020. We find evidence for multiple early introductions into Georgia, despite relatively sparse sampling. Most sampled sequences likely stemmed from a single or small number of introductions from Asia three weeks prior to the state's first detected infection. Our analysis of sequences from domestic travelers demonstrates widespread circulation of closely related viruses in multiple US states by the end of March 2020. Our findings indicate that the exclusive focus on identifying SARS-CoV-2 in returning international travelers early in the pandemic may have led to a failure to recognize locally circulating infections for several weeks and point toward a critical need for implementing rapid, broadly targeted surveillance efforts for future pandemics.

The changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

We have come a long way since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic-from hoarding toilet paper and wiping down groceries to sending our children back to school and vaccinating billions. Over this period, the global community of epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists has also come a long way in understanding the complex and changing dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. In this Review, we retrace our steps through the questions that this community faced as the pandemic unfolded. We focus on the key roles that mathematical modeling and quantitative analyses of empirical data have played in allowing us to address these questions and ultimately to better understand and control the pandemic.

Mammalian Orthoreovirus Reassortment Proceeds with Little Constraint on Segment Mixing.

Segmentation of viral genomes provides the potential for genetic exchange within coinfected cells. However, for this potential to be realized, coinfecting genomes must mix during the viral life cycle. The efficiency of reassortment, in turn, dictates its potential to drive evolution. The opportunity for mixing within coinfected cells may vary greatly across virus families, such that the evolutionary implications of genome segmentation differ as a result of core features of the viral life cycle. To investigate the relationship between viral replication compartments and genetic exchange, we quantified reassortment in mammalian orthoreovirus (reovirus). Reoviruses carry a 10-segmented, double-stranded RNA genome, which is replicated within proteinaceous structures termed inclusion bodies. We hypothesized that inclusions impose a barrier to reassortment. We quantified reassortment between wild-type (wt) and variant (var) reoviruses that differ by one nucleotide per segment. Studies of wt/var systems in both T1L and T3D backgrounds revealed frequent reassortment without bias toward particular genotypes. However, reassortment was more efficient in the T3D serotype. Since T1L and T3D viruses exhibit different inclusion body morphologies, we tested the impact of this phenotype on reassortment. In both serotypes, reassortment levels did not differ by inclusion morphology. Reasoning that the merging of viral inclusions may be critical for genome mixing, we then tested the effect of blocking merging. Reassortment proceeded efficiently even under these conditions. Our findings indicate that reovirus reassortment is highly efficient despite the localization of many viral processes to inclusion bodies, and that the robustness of this genetic exchange is independent of inclusion body structure and fusion. IMPORTANCE Quantification of reassortment in diverse viral systems is critical to elucidate the implications of genome segmentation for viral evolution. In principle, genome segmentation offers a facile means of genetic exchange between coinfecting viruses. In practice, there may be physical barriers within the cell that limit the mixing of viral genomes. Here, we tested the hypothesis that localization of the various stages of the mammalian orthoreovirus life cycle within cytoplasmic inclusion bodies compartmentalizes viral replication and limits genetic exchange. Contrary to this hypothesis, our data indicate that reovirus reassortment occurs readily within coinfected cells and is not strongly affected by the structure or dynamics of viral inclusion bodies. We conclude that the potential for reassortment to contribute to reovirus evolution is high.

Comment on "Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2".

A reanalysis of SARS-CoV-2 deep sequencing data from donor-recipient pairs indicates that transmission bottlenecks are very narrow (one to three virions).

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks.

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

Lineage-specific protection and immune imprinting shape the age distributions of influenza B cases.

How a history of influenza virus infections contributes to protection is not fully understood, but such protection might explain the contrasting age distributions of cases of the two lineages of influenza B, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. Fitting a statistical model to those distributions using surveillance data from New Zealand, we found they could be explained by historical changes in lineage frequencies combined with cross-protection between strains of the same lineage. We found additional protection against B/Yamagata in people for whom it was their first influenza B infection, similar to the immune imprinting observed in influenza A. While the data were not informative about B/Victoria imprinting, B/Yamagata imprinting could explain the fewer B/Yamagata than B/Victoria cases in cohorts born in the 1990s and the bimodal age distribution of B/Yamagata cases. Longitudinal studies can test if these forms of protection inferred from historical data extend to more recent strains and other populations.